Comments on: Another oil shock in 2010? http://greenmonk.net/another-oil-shock-in-2010/ Green from the roots up, Sustainable from the top down Sun, 13 May 2012 08:54:32 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= By: Negvex http://greenmonk.net/another-oil-shock-in-2010/#comment-12599 Negvex Tue, 24 Aug 2010 03:08:40 +0000 http://greenmonk.net/?p=848#comment-12599 Oil demand/prices over the next decade will to a large degree be driven by emerging economy demand at the margin. Here is another thought experiment using Chinese demand to generate some rough back of the envelope? forecasts: - China moves from 3 bbls/person/year to the South Korean per capita consumption level of 17 bbls/person/year over the next 30 years - No peak in global production Result: In next 10 years we must find 44 million BOPD - 26 million BOPD to maintain supply and 18 million BOPD to keep up with demand increases. If you superimpose peak production on top of this demand profile using the following parameters oil prices would increase approximately 250% in real terms over next 10 years - most likely something would give far before that price level: - Oil demand elasticity of -0.3 - Current production 84 million BOPD - Current price US$ 80 - Peak production 100 million BOPD - Post peak decline rate of 3-4% If you want to try the china oil demand or the peak oil models for yourself using your own assumptions they can be found at Enquirica in the "Research" section: http://www.enquirica.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=11&Itemid=13 Oil demand/prices over the next decade will to a large degree be driven by emerging economy demand at the margin. Here is another thought experiment using Chinese demand to generate some rough back of the envelope? forecasts:

- China moves from 3 bbls/person/year to the South Korean per capita consumption level of 17 bbls/person/year over the next 30 years
- No peak in global production

Result: In next 10 years we must find 44 million BOPD – 26 million BOPD to maintain supply and 18 million BOPD to keep up with demand increases.

If you superimpose peak production on top of this demand profile using the following parameters oil prices would increase approximately 250% in real terms over next 10 years – most likely something would give far before that price level:

- Oil demand elasticity of -0.3
- Current production 84 million BOPD
- Current price US$ 80
- Peak production 100 million BOPD
- Post peak decline rate of 3-4%

If you want to try the china oil demand or the peak oil models for yourself using your own assumptions they can be found at Enquirica in the “Research” section: http://www.enquirica.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=11&Itemid=13

]]> By: Rich http://greenmonk.net/another-oil-shock-in-2010/#comment-4815 Rich Sat, 28 Feb 2009 01:30:47 +0000 http://greenmonk.net/?p=848#comment-4815 Oil prices will definitely returm to prior levels and go well beyond them. Nothing has changes. Alternatives are mainly niche markets and more and more nations and peoples will use oil. With all the cutbacks in new oil exploration and development the oil prices will surge quickly and unexpectantly. Oil prices will definitely returm to prior levels and go well beyond them. Nothing has changes. Alternatives are mainly niche markets and more and more nations and peoples will use oil. With all the cutbacks in new oil exploration and development the oil prices will surge quickly and unexpectantly.

]]> By: sebastian goeres http://greenmonk.net/another-oil-shock-in-2010/#comment-4637 sebastian goeres Fri, 30 Jan 2009 23:12:59 +0000 http://greenmonk.net/?p=848#comment-4637 Also, guess who will cut supply to regain profits? As soon as the economy recovers, we will see a surge in oil prices. Frankly, I would like to see that rather sooner than later. Cheap oil is nice, but as a renewable energy professional I need to see people seriously considering sustainable alternatives. All green talk aside, they don't do that without the right price signals. Sebastian Göres Also, guess who will cut supply to regain profits? As soon as the economy recovers, we will see a surge in oil prices. Frankly, I would like to see that rather sooner than later. Cheap oil is nice, but as a renewable energy professional I need to see people seriously considering sustainable alternatives. All green talk aside, they don’t do that without the right price signals.

Sebastian Göres

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